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Security practitioners have long preached risk management principles -- and more specifically threat management -- as a way to help organisations understand, rank and prioritise threats against their environment.
The key goal of these risk management activities is to balance the cost of protective measures and achieve gains in mission capability by protecting their IT systems.
However, though a primary goal of any threat assessment is determining “probability of occurrence” or “likelihood,” we frequently see that likelihood is the one area organisations consistently fail to measure correctly. The result can sometimes be likened to a homeowner spurning bolt locks and investing in an anti-missile defense system.
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